Predictika · Hard-drive supply commitments

An AI sales agent's supply commitment, checked before it goes out

An AI sales agent prepares a hard-drive supply commitment for a fictional drive maker, Cobalt Ridge Storage: a new order or a pull-in of volume that is already booked. Before it goes out, the agent sends it to Predictika, which checks it against a declarative model of the commitment rules and returns a verdict, every reason, and the figures it computed.

Scope: supply commitments for hard-drive platforms (UltraSMR 32TB, ePMR 40TB and HAMR 44TB) across hyperscale, restricted-destination and channel customers. See everything this validator covers

This validator models one process: committing supply of three hard-drive platforms (UltraSMR 32TB, ePMR 40TB and HAMR 44TB) for a fictional drive maker, Cobalt Ridge Storage, against a book of 64 customer, platform and quarter positions over six quarters (2027-Q1 to 2028-Q2). It handles any new order or pull-in involving these platforms, seven customers, six quarters, prices or agreement terms, not just the scenarios shown on this page. It checks:

  • Capacity — the larger of what is ordered and the firm minimum owed in each position, the 52-week build lead time, manufacturing flex beyond it, and the channel reserve, which is kept separate from hyperscale capacity.
  • Contract terms — the agreement maximum (base plus upside) and a blended price floor, with the 5 percent pricing-exception band.
  • Order types — new orders, pull-ins to an earlier quarter, spot deals outside any agreement, and channel orders.
  • Platform readiness — the HAMR ramp date and each customer's qualification of each platform.
  • Trade rules — a controlled platform to a restricted destination is blocked; other shipments there need a trade-compliance review.
  • Execution gate — a second call to execute is accepted only for an allowed commitment, or an approved one.

It does not cover other drive platforms, individual drive SKUs, payment terms, or changes to existing orders other than pull-ins. The customers, capacity, agreements and prices are invented for the demonstration.

The AI sales agentBuilds the supply commitment from the conversation and says it is ready.
Predictika validatorChecks every rule at once and returns the verdict, each finding, and the computed figures.

8 scenarios in 4 groups · each group runs from the agent’s first attempt to the outcome · click one to switch

What the agent proposes

The AI sales agent says

Illustrative agent statement. The validator receives the structured request below.

Proposing agent: AI sales agent (scripted)

Before sending, the agent must call Recorded run

Predictika validator


      

        
        
        
      

      
Waiting for the call.

      
    

  

  

  

    
Where rules-based CPQ gets it wrong
Click to expand
    
Our assessment of what a typical rules-based CPQ (product rules, price rules and validation rules) does with the same cases. It is a judgment about effort and reliability, not a claim that nothing can be built.

    
What the validator caughtTypical rules-based CPQPredictika
Capacity promised against minimums owed to other customersOnly with workarounds
The rule has to total every other customer's unordered minimum for the quarter, which no single quote line sees; it is usually a custom roll-up that someone must keep in step with the book.		The whole book for the quarter is part of the model, and the finding names the customer the capacity is owed to.
Blended price floor as base volume runs outOnly with care
Doable with a price rule that splits the order between base and upside, but it needs the customer's remaining base volume kept current.		The split is computed on every call from the booked volume.
Pull-ins of volume that is already bookedOnly with workarounds
CPQ quotes new lines; moving booked volume between quarters and checking it against the source quarter is not what its rules are built around.		A pull-in is a proposal type with its own checks: earlier quarter, enough booked, target inside the agreement.
Qualification, ramp and export control by customer and platformOnly with care
Lookup tables and one rule per combination; each new platform or customer adds more to maintain.		Platform ramp, customer qualification and destination status are all checked together on every call.
Every reason in one answerOnly with workarounds
Rules tend to fire as a step is saved, so a planner fixes one error and meets the next.		All findings come back together, whatever order the choices arrived in.

  

  

    
What this validator catches: the rules it enforces
Click to expand
    
Every rule is checked on every call, in any order the choices arrive; one problem never hides another. Blocking findings stop the commitment; approval findings need a person to sign off; everything else is computed.

    
1Price below the contract floor. The price must meet a blended floor: the part of the order that fits in the customer's remaining base volume is priced at the base price, and the rest at the upside floor.
2Pricing exception needed. A price below the floor but within 5 percent of it can go forward only with a pricing exception, which needs approval.
3Order exceeds the agreement maximum. Booked volume plus the new order cannot exceed the agreement maximum (base plus upside).
4Not enough capacity in the quarter. Each customer position needs the larger of what it has ordered and its firm minimum, so a new promise cannot use capacity owed to someone else. The finding names the customer the capacity is owed to.
5Needs extra build starts. Over capacity beyond the 52-week build lead time goes to manufacturing for approval up to the flex amount; inside the lead time it is blocked.
6No agreement covers it (spot deal). An order outside any agreement is a spot deal at the platform's spot floor and needs sales VP approval.
7Drive not shipping yet in that quarter. No volume can be promised in a quarter before the platform ships.
8Customer has not qualified the drive. No volume can be promised where the customer has not qualified the platform.
9Export-controlled drive to a restricted destination. A controlled platform to a restricted destination is blocked.
10Trade compliance review. Other shipments to a restricted destination need a trade-compliance review.
11Channel reserve exceeded. Channel orders are capped by the channel reserve and priced at the channel floor; they cannot draw on hyperscale capacity.
12Pull-in goes the wrong way. A pull-in must move volume to an earlier quarter.
13Pull-in larger than what is booked. A pull-in cannot exceed the volume booked in the source quarter, and the target quarter must be inside the agreement.
14Execution gate. A second call to execute is accepted only when the verdict is allow, or needs approval with the approvals recorded.

  

  

    
Scenarios and results
Click to expand
    
The recorded result of the validator for each scenario on this page: the request the AI agent sent, the verdict, and every finding, in the order they appear above.

    
1. Price floor: Northwind 3 EB at $16.00

    
The agent's request. Please book 3 EB of UltraSMR 32TB for Northwind Cloud in 2028-Q1 at $16.00 per TB. It is ready to send.

    
Verdict: Blocked.

    
    
      
  • Price below the contract floor. $16.00 per TB is below the contract floor of $17.25 per TB for this order: 0 EB fits in the remaining base volume at $15.50, and 3 EB is upside, priced at no less than $17.25.
    • 
    

    
2. Price floor: Northwind 3 EB at $16.50 with an exception

    
The agent's request. Please book 3 EB of UltraSMR 32TB for Northwind Cloud in 2028-Q1 at $16.50 per TB, with a pricing exception requested. It is ready to send.

    
Verdict: Needs approval.

    
    
      
  • Pricing exception needed. $16.50 per TB is below the $17.25 floor but within the 5 percent exception band. Needs a pricing exception approval.
    • 
      
  • Capacity check. After this commitment UltraSMR 32TB hyperscale orders plus firm minimums owed in 2028-Q1 come to 54 of 54 EB available.
    • 
      
  • Order value. Order value: 3 EB at $16.50 per TB = $49.5 million.
    • 
    

    
3. Price floor: Northwind 3 EB at $17.40

    
The agent's request. Please book 3 EB of UltraSMR 32TB for Northwind Cloud in 2028-Q1 at $17.40 per TB. It is ready to send.

    
Verdict: Allowed.

    
    
      
  • Capacity check. After this commitment UltraSMR 32TB hyperscale orders plus firm minimums owed in 2028-Q1 come to 54 of 54 EB available.
    • 
      
  • Order value. Order value: 3 EB at $17.40 per TB = $52.2 million.
    • 
    

    
4. Pull-in and capacity owed to others: Helios pull-in of 3 EB

    
The agent's request. Please move 3 EB of UltraSMR 32TB for Helios Compute from 2027-Q3 into 2027-Q2. It is ready to send.

    
Verdict: Blocked.

    
    
      
  • Not enough capacity in the quarter. UltraSMR 32TB hyperscale capacity in 2027-Q2 is 58 EB after the channel reserve. With this commitment, orders plus firm minimums owed would need 60 EB. 2027-Q2 is inside the 52-week build lead time or beyond what extra build starts can add.
    • 
      
  • Capacity owed to another customer. Stratus Nine still has 2 EB of firm minimum unordered in UltraSMR 32TB 2027-Q2 under LTA-STR-27. That capacity is owed to them and cannot be promised to anyone else.
    • 
    

    
5. Pull-in and capacity owed to others: Helios pull-in of 1 EB

    
The agent's request. Please move 1 EB of UltraSMR 32TB for Helios Compute from 2027-Q3 into 2027-Q2. It is ready to send.

    
Verdict: Allowed.

    
    
      
  • Capacity check. After this commitment UltraSMR 32TB hyperscale orders plus firm minimums owed in 2027-Q2 come to 58 of 58 EB available.
    • 
    

    
6. HAMR ramp and qualification: Northwind HAMR in 2027-Q1

    
The agent's request. Please book 1 EB of HAMR 44TB for Northwind Cloud in 2027-Q1 at $22.00 per TB. It is ready to send.

    
Verdict: Blocked.

    
    
      
  • Drive not shipping yet in that quarter. HAMR 44TB first ships in 2027-Q2; 2027-Q1 is before the ramp.
    • 
      
  • Not enough capacity in the quarter. HAMR 44TB hyperscale capacity in 2027-Q1 is 0 EB after the channel reserve. With this commitment, orders plus firm minimums owed would need 1 EB. 2027-Q1 is inside the 52-week build lead time or beyond what extra build starts can add.
    • 
      
  • Customer has not qualified the drive. Northwind Cloud has not qualified HAMR 44TB for shipments in 2027-Q1. Volume can only be promised where the customer has qualified the drive.
    • 
      
  • No agreement covers it (spot deal). No agreement covers Northwind Cloud for HAMR 44TB in 2027-Q1. This is a spot deal at a floor of $21.00 per TB and needs sales VP approval.
    • 
    

    
7. HAMR ramp and qualification: Northwind HAMR in 2027-Q4

    
The agent's request. Please book 1 EB of HAMR 44TB for Northwind Cloud in 2027-Q4 at $22.00 per TB. It is ready to send.

    
Verdict: Allowed.

    
    
      
  • Capacity check. After this commitment HAMR 44TB hyperscale orders plus firm minimums owed in 2027-Q4 come to 9 of 10 EB available.
    • 
      
  • Order value. Order value: 1 EB at $22.00 per TB = $22.0 million.
    • 
    

    
8. Export control: Lantern Cloud HAMR

    
The agent's request. Please book 1 EB of HAMR 44TB for Lantern Cloud in 2027-Q4 at $22.00 per TB. It is ready to send.

    
Verdict: Blocked.

    
    
      
  • Export-controlled drive to a restricted destination. HAMR 44TB is an export-controlled platform and Lantern Cloud is a restricted destination.
    • 
      
  • No agreement covers it (spot deal). No agreement covers Lantern Cloud for HAMR 44TB in 2027-Q4. This is a spot deal at a floor of $21.00 per TB and needs sales VP approval.
    • 
    

  

  

    
Narration transcript
Click to expand
    
The text of the narrated walkthrough, step by step.

    
    
      
  1. Welcome to a demo of Predictika's Validator. An AI sales agent prepares a hard-drive supply commitment for a fictional drive maker, Cobalt Ridge Storage: a new order or a pull-in of volume that is already booked. Before it goes out, the agent sends it to Predictika, which checks it against a declarative model of the commitment rules and returns a verdict, every reason, and the figures it computed.
    2. 
      
  2. I will start with the first request by the agent.
    3. 
      
  3. The agent says. Please book 1 EB of HAMR 44TB for Northwind Cloud in 2027-Q1 at $22.00 per TB. It is ready to send.
    4. 
      
  4. Before it goes out, the agent calls the validator.
    5. 
      
  5. Blocked, with three findings and one approval, all in one answer. HAMR 44TB first ships in 2027-Q2; 2027-Q1 is before the ramp. HAMR 44TB hyperscale capacity in 2027-Q1 is 0 EB after the channel reserve. With this commitment, orders plus firm minimums owed would need 1 EB. 2027-Q1 is inside the 52-week build lead time or beyond what extra build starts can add. Northwind Cloud has not qualified HAMR 44TB for shipments in 2027-Q1. Volume can only be promised where the customer has qualified the drive.
    6. 
      
  6. The validator returned three blocking findings and one approval in one answer. A check that reads one field at a time would pass most of this; it shows only when the choices in the commitment proposal are checked against each other.
    7. 
      
  7. What this shows: for capacity promised against minimums owed to other customers, a rules-based CPQ can do this only with workarounds.
    8. 
      
  8. Now the agent resubmits.
    9. 
      
  9. The corrected request.
    10. 
      
  10. It calls the validator again.
    11. 
      
  11. This time the validator clears it.
    12. 
      
  12. All four earlier findings are cleared.
    13. 
      
  13. Four problems caught in one call, fixed in one pass, and a clean commitment. That is the value of Predictika's validator: catching mistakes before they reach the customer. Now you can try the other scenarios yourself.
    14.