Predictika · Commercial real estate finance
An AI sales agent structures a commercial real estate loan using Greystone programs: FHA/HUD Section 223(f), 221(d)(4), 232/223(f) and 232 loans, the Fannie Mae Fixed Rate and Freddie Mac Conventional Fixed-Rate loans, and the Multifamily and Healthcare Bridge Loans, with the loan amount, term, amortization, fees and escrow due at closing. Before the structure goes out, the agent sends it to Predictika, which checks it against a declarative model of the program terms Greystone publishes and returns a verdict, every reason, a fee schedule and the figures it computed.
This validator models the structure of a Greystone loan as described in the public Greystone term sheets, not just the scenarios shown below. Where a rule is a published Greystone term it says so; the annual debt service constant, some bridge fees, thresholds and the approvals are labelled as invented.
Any Greystone loan structure that touches these programs and rules is in scope — not only the scenarios pictured here. Not covered: the other Greystone programs (223(a)(7), 241(a), Express Lane, interest rate reduction, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac affordable, seniors, student housing and small loans, mezzanine, preferred equity, CMBS, tax-exempt bonds, Alt Capital), statutory per-unit limits, the Section 232 rehabilitation extra limit, prepayment terms and servicing. The borrowers are fictional.
7 scenarios in 3 groups · each group runs from the agent’s first attempt to the outcome · click one to switch
Illustrative agent statement. The validator receives the structured request below.
Proposing agent: AI sales agent (scripted)
Before sending, the agent must call Recorded run
What this means
Our assessment of what a typical rules-based CPQ (product rules, price rules and validation rules, as in Salesforce CPQ) does with the same cases. It is a judgment about effort and reliability, not a claim that nothing can be built.
| What the validator caught | Typical rules-based CPQ | Predictika |
|---|---|---|
| Loan tiers that change at $130 million | Only with workarounds Under 223(f) and 221(d)(4) a market-rate loan is limited to 87 percent and 1.15 times coverage below $130 million and 75 percent and 1.30 times above it. A rules engine needs the tier test repeated in every limit, and a loan resized across the line changes four numbers at once. | The tier is computed once from the loan amount and every limit reads it. |
| A maximum loan that is the least of several limits | Only with care Loan-to-value, loan-to-cost and debt service coverage each give a ceiling, and each differs by program, property type, borrower type and purpose. Calculated fields can do it, but the set multiplies with every program. | The three ceilings and the largest loan are computed together and every finding names its own limit. |
| Eligibility tests that belong to one program | Only with workarounds A 20-bed minimum, the Special Focus Facility list, a three-year-old certificate of occupancy and a license apply to 232/223(f); the same property under 221(d)(4) has other tests. Each is a field with a rule for one program. | Each test is checked against the program quoted, in the same pass as everything else. |
| Fees of different kinds that add up to cash at closing | Only with workarounds A percent of the loan, a premium per year times the construction months, a greater-of fee, a size-tiered commitment fee and an escrow all land in one total that the agent also states. | Every fee is computed, listed as a line, and the total is compared with the figure the agent stated. |
| Rehabilitation scope tests | Only with care A 221(d)(4) rehabilitation must cost more than 15,000 dollars per unit times a local cost factor, and a Section 232 rehabilitation more than 15 percent of value or more than half of two major systems. A rule can hold one number; the either-or test and the cost factor take more. | The scope tests are checked against the repairs and the cost factor given. |
| Every problem returned in one answer | Only with workarounds Rules tend to fire as the structure is saved or a step is completed, so a person often fixes one error and meets the next. | All findings come back together, whatever order the choices arrived in. |
Every rule is checked on every call, in any order the choices arrive; one problem never hides another. Blocking findings stop the loan structure; approval findings need a person to sign off; everything else is computed.
| 1 | A manufactured housing community under 223(f) is limited to governmental, nonprofit or cooperative borrowers and allows no cash-out. |
| 2 | The loan of $33,000,000 is above $32,000,000, the 80 percent loan-to-value limit on a value of $40,000,000. |
| 3 | The property type is not eligible for the selected program; the multifamily programs finance market rate, affordable and subsidized apartments (manufactured housing communities only under 223(f), Fannie Mae Fixed Rate and the Multifamily Bridge Loan), and the healthcare programs finance licensed assisted living and skilled nursing facilities (independent living only under the Healthcare Bridge Loan). |
| 4 | The property has 4 units or pads; the Fannie Mae Fixed Rate loan needs at least 5 (5 units, or 50 pad sites for a manufactured housing community). |
| 5 | The loan purpose is not available in the selected program; 223(f), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans acquire or refinance (cash-out only there), 232/223(f) acquires or refinances, 221(d)(4) and Section 232 build or substantially rehabilitate, and bridge loans acquire, refinance or fund moderate rehabilitation. |
| 6 | The borrower is an operating company; HUD, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans need a single-asset, special-purpose borrowing entity. |
| 7 | The loan of $33,100,000 is above $33,060,000, the 87 percent loan-to-cost limit on a cost of $38,000,000. |
| 8 | The loan of $130,000,000 is in the $130 million and above tier, where HUD may impose stricter loan-to-value, loan-to-cost and coverage limits in a particular case, so a person should confirm. |
| 9 | Net operating income of $9,900,000 covers the annual debt service of $7,800,000 only 1.26 times; the program minimum is 1.30 times. |
| 10 | Net operating income of $2,277,000 is less than 5 percent above the $2,277,000 that the minimum coverage of 1.15 times requires on this debt service, so a person should confirm. |
| 11 | The repairs cost $5,700,001; a 223(f) loan allows up to $5,700,000 (15,$0 per unit times the local cost factor). |
| 12 | Commercial space is 26 percent of the area; the program allows 25 percent. |
| 13 | Commercial income is 21 percent of effective gross income; the program allows 20 percent. |
| 14 | The structure has a term of 421 months; the program term is between 1 and 420 months. |
| 15 | The structure amortizes over 420 months; the HUD loan must fully amortize over 421 months. |
| 16 | Davis-Bacon prevailing wages are not committed; 221(d)(4) and Section 232 construction and rehabilitation loans require them for all contractors and subcontractors. |
| 17 | The structure has a term of 504 months; a construction loan runs the construction period of 0 months plus 40 years, 480 months in all. |
| 18 | The construction period is 0 months; a construction loan needs a period of 1 to 36 months. |
| 19 | The working capital escrow is $1,599,999; the loan needs at least $1,600,000 (2 percent of the loan). |
| 20 | The renovation costs $8,000,000, not more than $8,550,000 (15,$0 per unit times the local cost factor); 221(d)(4) rehabilitation needs more, otherwise 223(f) fits. |
| 21 | The facility has 19 beds; a Section 232/223(f) project needs at least 20. |
| 22 | The facility is on the Special Focus Facility list or its candidate list, which Section 232/223(f) does not allow. |
| 23 | The last certificate of occupancy is 2 years old; Section 232/223(f) needs at least 3 years to have passed. |
| 24 | The facility is not state licensed; Section 232 financing needs a licensed nursing home, assisted living, intermediate care or board and care facility. |
| 25 | The renovation costs $6,000,000, not more than 15 percent of the post-rehabilitation value of $50,000,000, and 1 major building systems are more than half replaced; Section 232 rehabilitation needs more than 15 percent of value or more than half of two or more major systems. |
| 26 | The structure amortizes over 31 years; Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fixed-rate loans amortize over 30 years at most. |
| 27 | The loan of $7,499,999 is outside the usual $7.5 million to $100 million Freddie Mac range, which is considered case by case, so a person should confirm. |
| 28 | The Freddie Mac fixed-rate loan has a term of 72 months; it is offered for 5, 7 or 10 years (up to 30 years only if the loan is not sold for securitization). |
| 29 | The Freddie Mac term of 180 months is longer than 10 years, which is offered only if the loan is not sold for securitization, so a person should confirm. |
| 30 | The loan of $7,499,999 is below the program minimum of $7,500,000. |
| 31 | The bridge loan of $75,000,001 is above $75 million, which Greystone considers on request, so a person should confirm. |
| 32 | The loan of $32,000,001 is above $32,000,000, 80 percent of the stabilized value of $40,000,000. |
| 33 | The loan is 85 percent of cost, above the usual 85 percent; up to 90 percent is considered case by case, so a person should confirm. |
| 34 | No interest rate cap is purchased; a bridge loan needs one for the full term from a counterparty rated A2/A or better. |
The recorded result of the validator for each scenario on this page: the request the AI agent sent, the verdict, and every finding, in the order they appear above.
The agent's request. Please structure an FHA/HUD Section 221(d)(4) loan of $142,000,000 to build a 480-unit market-rate apartment community. The borrower is a single-asset entity. The property has an eligible cost of $186,000,000, net operating income of $11,000,000 and an annual debt service constant of 6.05 percent. The construction period is 30 months. The term is 480 months, amortized over 40 years. Commercial space is 12 percent of the area and 18 percent of income. The working capital escrow is $1,500,000. The structure states cash due at closing of $1,313,500. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Blocked.
The agent's request. Please structure an FHA/HUD Section 221(d)(4) loan of $139,000,000 to build a 480-unit market-rate apartment community. The borrower is a single-asset entity. The property has an eligible cost of $186,000,000, net operating income of $11,000,000 and an annual debt service constant of 6.05 percent. The construction period is 30 months. The term is 510 months, amortized over 40 years. Commercial space is 12 percent of the area and 14 percent of income. The working capital escrow is $2,800,000. Davis-Bacon prevailing wages are committed. The structure states cash due at closing of $4,085,750. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Needs approval.
The agent's request. Please structure an FHA/HUD Section 221(d)(4) loan of $128,000,000 to build a 480-unit market-rate apartment community. The borrower is a single-asset entity. The property has an eligible cost of $186,000,000, net operating income of $11,000,000 and an annual debt service constant of 6.05 percent. The construction period is 30 months. The term is 510 months, amortized over 40 years. Commercial space is 12 percent of the area and 14 percent of income. The working capital escrow is $2,800,000. Davis-Bacon prevailing wages are committed. The structure states cash due at closing of $3,984,000. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Allowed.
The agent's request. Please structure an FHA/HUD Section 232/223(f) loan of $45,000,000 to refinance a 240-bed skilled nursing facility. The property has a value of $52,000,000, an eligible cost of $41,000,000, net operating income of $5,600,000 and an annual debt service constant of 7.00 percent. The term is 420 months, amortized over 35 years. The remaining economic life is 36 years. Repairs and renovation cost $300,000. Commercial space is 4 percent of the area and 3 percent of income. The facility has a certificate of occupancy 10 years old. The structure states cash due at closing of $142,200. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Blocked.
The agent's request. Please structure an FHA/HUD Section 232/223(f) loan of $41,000,000 to refinance a 240-bed skilled nursing facility. The borrower is a single-asset entity. The property has a value of $52,000,000, an eligible cost of $41,000,000, net operating income of $5,600,000 and an annual debt service constant of 7.00 percent. The term is 324 months, amortized over 27 years. The remaining economic life is 36 years. Repairs and renovation cost $300,000. Commercial space is 4 percent of the area and 3 percent of income. The facility has a certificate of occupancy 10 years old. The structure states cash due at closing of $540,200. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Allowed.
The agent's request. Please structure a Healthcare Bridge Loan of $50,200,000 to acquire a 310-bed assisted living community. The property has an eligible cost of $54,500,000, net operating income of $5,200,000 and an annual debt service constant of 8.20 percent. The term is 48 months, interest-only. The structure states cash due at closing of $266,000. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Blocked.
The agent's request. Please structure a Healthcare Bridge Loan of $46,000,000 to acquire a 310-bed assisted living community. The property has an eligible cost of $54,500,000, net operating income of $5,200,000 and an annual debt service constant of 8.20 percent. The term is 36 months, interest-only. An interest rate cap is purchased for the full term. The structure states cash due at closing of $475,000. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Allowed.
The text of the narrated walkthrough, step by step.