Predictika · Upgrade kit and refurbished tool commitments
An AI sales agent prepares a delivery commitment for an installed-base upgrade kit or a refurbished tool: quantity, quarter, lead time, downtime window, deposit, destination and the figures it will state to the customer. Before it goes out, the agent sends it to Predictika, which checks it against a declarative model of build capacity, shared spares, crew days, tool generation, export-license and acceptance rules and returns a verdict and every reason.
This validator models upgrade and refurbished-tool delivery commitments, not just the scenarios shown below.
Any upgrade or refurbished-tool commitment that touches these rules is in scope — not only the scenarios pictured here. All supply, crew, spares, lead-time and threshold values are invented illustrative demo values, not Lam Research data. Not covered: pricing, tool configuration options, warranty and service terms, and countries other than the allied and China destinations modeled here.
6 scenarios in 3 groups · each group runs from the agent’s first attempt to the outcome · click one to switch
Illustrative agent statement. The validator receives the structured request below.
Proposing agent: AI sales agent (scripted)
Before sending, the agent must call Recorded run
What this means
Our assessment of what a typical rules-based CPQ (product rules, price rules and validation rules, as in Salesforce CPQ) does with the same cases. It is a judgment about effort and reliability, not a claim that nothing can be built.
| What the validator caught | Typical rules-based CPQ | Predictika |
|---|---|---|
| A spares pool shared across orders | Only with workarounds The pool is a running balance, so every order has to be netted against it by a separate rule and the rule must be kept in step with the order book. | The pool, the spares per unit and the quantity are in one request and compared on every call. |
| A quarter that changes several limits at once | Only with workarounds Moving an order to a later quarter changes supply, spares, crew days and the earliest acceptance together, and each limit has its own rule that fires at its own step. | The quarter is a field of the request; supply, spares, crew and acceptance are all recalculated and checked together. |
| A license that applies only to some kits | Only with care The China license rule has to be repeated per kit and destination, and a kit added later is easy to miss. | The kit carries a license flag and the destination and license status are checked against it on every call. |
| Figures the agent states in the quote | Only with workarounds Stated availability and lead time are free text or fields outside the rules, so a separate comparison rule is needed for each. | The stated figures are fields of the request and are compared with the supply table and the lead-time table on every call. |
| Every problem returned in one answer | Only with workarounds Rules tend to fire as a step is completed, so a rep often fixes one error and meets the next. | All findings come back together, whatever order the choices arrived in. |
Every rule is checked on every call, in any order the choices arrive; one problem never hides another. Blocking findings stop the quote; approval findings need a person to sign off; everything else is computed.
| 1 | This order needs 36 long-lead spares and only 33 are unallocated in Q1 2027; the shared spares pool cannot cover it. |
| 2 | This order needs 96 field installation crew days and only 90 are open in Q1 2027; the installation cannot be scheduled. |
| 3 | 9 units are requested and only 8 can be built or sourced in Q4 2026; the delivery cannot be promised. |
| 4 | This order leaves under 1 units of margin in Q4 2026; confirm with supply planning. |
| 5 | This order needs 42 field installation crew days and only 40 are open in Q4 2026; the installation cannot be scheduled. |
| 6 | 3 units are requested and only 2 can be built or sourced in Q4 2026; the delivery cannot be promised. |
| 7 | The quote states 3 units available in Q4 2026, but the supply table shows 2. |
| 8 | The installed tool is generation 1 and the Deposition upgrade kit for installed VECTOR and ALTUS class tools supports generation 2 or later; the upgrade cannot be quoted for this tool. |
| 9 | The customer allows 3 weeks of tool downtime and the Etch conversion kit for installed conductor and dielectric etch tools needs at least 4 weeks to install. |
| 10 | 17 weeks is below the 18 week minimum even with expedite for the Etch conversion kit for installed conductor and dielectric etch tools. |
| 11 | 18 weeks is below the 26 week standard lead time for the Etch conversion kit for installed conductor and dielectric etch tools; expedite needs approval. |
| 12 | 25 weeks is below the 26 week standard lead time for the Etch conversion kit for installed conductor and dielectric etch tools; expedite needs approval. |
| 13 | The acceptance milestone is set for quarter 3 but delivery in Q2 2027 plus installation and acceptance is not complete before quarter 4. |
| 14 | A deposit of 9 percent is below the 10 percent needed to hold a build or install slot. |
| 15 | A deposit of 10 percent is below the 30 percent standard; confirm the payment terms with finance. |
| 16 | A deposit of 29 percent is below the 30 percent standard; confirm the payment terms with finance. |
| 17 | This shipment to China needs an export license for the Etch conversion kit for installed conductor and dielectric etch tools and its status is Not_Filed; do not quote a delivery date. |
| 18 | This shipment to China needs an export license for the Etch conversion kit for installed conductor and dielectric etch tools and its status is Not_Needed; do not quote a delivery date. |
| 19 | The China export license is pending; the delivery date must be written as contingent on the grant. |
| 20 | The customer is on a restricted-party list; no quote can be issued. |
| 21 | The quote states 22 units available in Q2 2027, but the supply table shows 20. |
| 22 | The quote states a standard lead time of 20 weeks for the Etch conversion kit for installed conductor and dielectric etch tools, but it is 26 weeks. |
| 23 | Component cost has moved 11 percent since the quote; honoring it needs a margin review. |
| 24 | The acceptance milestone is set for quarter 4 but delivery in Q3 2027 plus installation and acceptance is not complete before quarter 5. |
The recorded result of the validator for each scenario on this page: the request the AI agent sent, the verdict, and every finding, in the order they appear above.
The agent's request. Please commit 12 x Etch conversion kit for delivery in Q4 2026, with 12 weeks lead time and 3 weeks of tool downtime allowed; the installed tool is generation 1, the deposit is 5 percent and the acceptance milestone is quarter 1. It ships to China and the export license is not yet filed. I will tell the customer that 10 units are available and the standard lead time is 20 weeks. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Blocked.
The agent's request. Please commit 12 x Etch conversion kit for delivery in Q2 2027, with 26 weeks lead time and 4 weeks of tool downtime allowed; the installed tool is generation 3, the deposit is 30 percent and the acceptance milestone is quarter 4. It ships to China and the export license is granted. I will tell the customer that 20 units are available and the standard lead time is 26 weeks. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Allowed.
The agent's request. Please commit 19 x Deposition upgrade kit for delivery in Q2 2027, with 20 weeks lead time and 3 weeks of tool downtime allowed; the installed tool is generation 2, the deposit is 20 percent and the acceptance milestone is quarter 4. It ships to China and the export license is pending. Component cost has moved 15 percent. I will tell the customer that 20 units are available and the standard lead time is 24 weeks. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Needs approval.
The agent's request. Please commit 15 x Deposition upgrade kit for delivery in Q2 2027, with 24 weeks lead time and 3 weeks of tool downtime allowed; the installed tool is generation 2, the deposit is 30 percent and the acceptance milestone is quarter 4. It ships to China and the export license is granted. Component cost has moved 5 percent. I will tell the customer that 20 units are available and the standard lead time is 24 weeks. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Allowed.
The agent's request. Please commit 3 x Refurbished Reliant-class tool for delivery in Q4 2026, with 20 weeks lead time and 3 weeks of tool downtime allowed; the installed tool is generation 3, the deposit is 50 percent and the acceptance milestone is quarter 2. I will tell the customer that 3 units are available and the standard lead time is 30 weeks. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Blocked.
The agent's request. Please commit 2 x Refurbished Reliant-class tool for delivery in Q2 2027, with 36 weeks lead time and 5 weeks of tool downtime allowed; the installed tool is generation 3, the deposit is 50 percent and the acceptance milestone is quarter 5. I will tell the customer that 5 units are available and the standard lead time is 36 weeks. It is ready to send.
Verdict: Allowed.
The text of the narrated walkthrough, step by step.